Utica/Point Pleasant Resource Evaluation And Appalachian Upstream and Midstream Development Updates (Aug 2015)

Utica/Point Pleasant Resource Evaluation and Appalachian Upstream and Midstream Development Updates (August 2015)

Resource Estimates

Recent hydrocarbons-in-place estimates for the Utica, Point Pleasant, and Logana Member of Trenton/Lexington Limestone range up to a whopping 1.7+ QCFeq! (QCFeq = Quadrillion Cubic Feet.) Original USGS technically recoverable resource was 38 TCF, 940 MM Bbls of oil, and 208 MM Bbls of natural gas liquids. In Dec. 2014, Irene Haas of Wunderlich Securities roughly estimated the resource at a minimum of about 90 TCF equivalent based on investor presentation statements of the main large players. The newest numbers, revised upwards by recent high volume wells, are by the WVGES and assume recoverability for three main zones throughout the basin and make some assumptions, but seem to be based on fairly standard reserve estimation principals. Their new technically recoverable resource estimate is about 782 TCF and 800 MMBbls of Oil. These numbers suggest that the Utica/Point Pleasant/Logana resource is even larger than the Marcellus. Last year the technically recoverable resource was estimated (but not announced) by the same consortium at 188.6 TCF and 840 MM Bbls of oil. In any case, the total unconventional shale resources of the Appalachian Basin, including the Utica-Point Pleasant-Logana resource, the Marcellus, Burkett, and other Upper Devonian resources seem to be somewhere around 1.5 QCF. Actual production from these new unconventional shales, mainly over the last five or six years, is now approaching the equivalence of all the previous hydrocarbons produced from the Appalachian Basin. Goldman-Sachs just reported a prediction that shale production will double by 2025. That implies vastly improved takeaway capacity and increased demand for gas and oil. Many companies are poised for better market conditions and can likely ramp up quickly to increase supply if it would be economic. Now that this resource has been defined and major infrastructure upgrades are commencing, the focus should be on effective and safe operation, efficiency, multi-year planning, and public acceptance. 

   

Development Constraints

The initial identification and characterization of this resource is now fairly well done, with perhaps some geological and technological refinements to come. The development of the resource is mostly constrained by the markets. Pipelines, LNG, gas power plants, and diesel-to-gas transportation are set to slowly open the tap to new markets over the next 5 years. Curtailment is the current case with Appalachian dry gas which sells for considerably lower than NYMEX. There are new markets appearing as well for natural gas liquids such as ethane, propane, and butane. Direct gas marketing and hedging offered some advantages to companies well positioned to provide firm deliveries but those hedges are now expiring. Pipeline projects are in various stages of development but should begin providing some glut relief soon. LNG exports are slated to begin in a few months. 1 QCF at Appalachian prices around $1.50 per MCF makes that resource worth 1.5 trillion dollars at current prices. At current NYMEX price it would be worth closer to 3 trillion. Through time the price and the value will probably rise considerably as production is consumed and wells decline. For comparison the global GDP for 2015 is estimated at 74.5 trillion dollars. There is also considerable resource development constraint by the public, with some zoning out of oil & gas activity, avoidance of sensitive areas, and unlease-able property. These public constraints can significantly reduce recoverability. Perhaps the term-phrase “accessibly recoverable” should be used, or at least the unrecoverable portion will need to be subtracted from the technically recoverable delineation.

Market Potential  

The new reserves numbers for the Utica sequence along with the entire massive Appalachian gas source is attractive to several markets. A stable source of cheap CNG for natural gas vehicles (NGVs), for transportation, for ships, trains, and significant heavy equipment applications, is one market. This market is currently small but is expected to rise, especially with possible state and/or federal incentives likely. Several LNG export terminals are in various stages of completion with first exports expected to go out at the end of the year. Plans are being made to ship gas via Chinese LNG tankers to Germany from Canada with Marcellus and Utica gas through New England after a major pipeline (Constitution) is built. This pipeline would also make gas much more affordable for areas of New England, with potential savings of millions of dollars for customers. Other Marcellus and Utica gas will go through the Buffalo area of National Fuel Gas (Seneca Resources) to eastern Canada. The Constitution Pipeline is expected to relieve some of the gas glut in Northeast. It is expected to be in operation in in the 2^nd half of 2016. It will also offer natural gas service to homes in areas where it has not been available. Marcellus gas has allowed many large buildings and residences in New York City to switch from home heating oil to natural gas, giving cheaper energy to customers and significantly improving air quality in the city. The Atlantic Coast Pipeline will make Marcellus and Utica gas available for gas power plants in the southeast so that those areas will be able to meet more stringent emissions requirements, become more efficient, and save their customer base hundreds of millions of dollars. There are several other major pipelines reaching out to other markets. Announcements to build ethane cracker plants, gas processing facilities, and NGL pipelines will allow NGLs to go to market, be processed into products, and relieve problems with excess ethane in gas pipelines. These gases and products are used as feedstock for the chemical, plastics, and fertilizer industries. Some companies are in the process or have pending deals to ship NGLs to Europe and other areas. On August 1^st (2015) the Rockies Express pipeline (REX) commenced continued reverse flow of gas and should provide cheaper gas to the Chicago market. Several other major pipeline and export deals are in the works. De-ethanization and NGL fractionation capacities are set to increase beginning later this year and into 1Q 2016. Overall management of this vast resource is taking shape. This can probably be done effectively and efficiently since core areas have been defined at least initially. The fact that the technically recoverable reserves of these reservoirs (Marcellus, Utica, Burkett) are now loosely defined allows for better and more efficient planning of infrastructure. The size of the resource lends support for long-term projects. The nature of unconventional resources as a continuous resource is well suited to efficient infrastructure planning and operation over long time periods.

Natural Gas and NGL Demand 

Most scenarios show increasing demand from now (2^nd half 2015) into the foreseeable future. Most demand sources are projected to keep increasing to 2020 and beyond: LNG; retirement of coal power plants and replacement by gas plants, methanol fertilizer plants (up to a BCF/day in new demand by the end of 2016); chemical plant feedstock (construction spending for such plants has more than doubled from 2014 to 2015; CNG and LNG for transportation (expected to continually increase as refueling infrastructure is laid out and conversion costs drop); increased usage of electric vehicles are expected to increase electricity demand and thus demand for gas; carbon emissions rules strongly favor gas over coal; increased use of small gas turbines as localized power sources. Possible reductions on demand include increased power plant efficiencies, development of smart grids and metering, better utility infrastructure planning, and increased use of renewable energy. Most of these reductions are necessary and desirable and will not have a large impact on overall gas demand in the near-term.

Market Share

In particular, the large Utica/Point Pleasant reserves may give certain well situated companies market share advantages. Range Resources and EQT just announced plans to build a large feeder pipeline in Southwestern PA. Both of these companies are well situated to take dominant market share positions with these resources. Range announced a big well in Dec. 2014 – 59MMCF/day IP in Washington County (10.9 MMCF/day/1000 ft of lateral) and more recently EQT announced an even larger one in Greene County – 72.9 MMCF/day (22+ MMCF/day/1000 ft of lateral). The EQT well had pressures greater than 8000 psi, among the highest pressure gradient seen. Consol’s recent well in Westmoreland County reportedly has an IP between EQT and Range’s wells. These wells in particular extend the major sweet spot significantly further east and lend more credibility to the high predicted reserves. Range also recently announced the highest Marcellus IP in Washington County at 43 MMCF/day. In Northeast PA Cabot and Chesapeake have dominant Marcellus positions in Susquehanna and Bradford Counties respectively. The core area companies can drill wells economically at lower commodities prices. Other market advantages include taking advantage of liquids-rich areas to increase profit and drilling multiple reservoirs at closer spacing from the same well pad, thereby sharing infrastructure. It has been suggested that Marcellus and Burket reservoirs should be drilled in tandem in the western areas where they are close together due to Marcellus producing pressures eventually affecting those of the Burket. The Burket has smaller reserves than the Marcellus but the advantages of stacked pay considerably help their economics, as does BTU boost from NGLs in the liquids fairways, although NGL prices are more tied to global oil prices so without relief from local processing facilities or long NGL pipelines current prices are likely to remain low. However, hedges and pipeline commitments are only advantageous in times of low gas prices. If demand and takeaway capacity increases as expected, hedges and pipeline commitments could work against the producers that have them as this article from BTU Analytics points out:

https://btuanalytics.com/products/a-firm-dilemma/

Supply and demand will likely continue to be a major issue in the Appalachian area as gas pricing is very sensitive to supply and demand market dynamics. Price volatility has often been problematic with natural gas but as high-reserve areas are now more delineated, things are likely to get more predictable as long as demand does not drop. The EIA predicts a 3 BCF/day (or 4%) overall rise in natural gas demand in 2015. Increasing supply has kept up with demand so far but is likely to start lagging with current low prices. Industrial consumption is expected to increase 2.3% in 2015 and 5% in 2016. Power generation and new chemical and fertilizer plants are expected to drive demand growth. Residential and commercial demand is expected to drop modestly. This article below has some interesting analysis:

http://247wallst.com/energy-business/2015/08/23/why-natural-gas-is-so-cheap-and-why-drillers-keep-producing-more/

It has also been pointed out by the EIA and market analysts that associated gas and NGL production from the shale oil plays are set to drop significantly in 2016. This should affect Appalachian supply as it reaches more distant markets.

Technological Constraints

The deep Utica/Point Pleasant dry gas play has had some significant difficulties with challenging conditions. Very high well pressures have caused difficulty in completing wells. The high vertical depths might constrain lateral lengths somewhat and increase drilling and completion times. High pressure equipment and techniques must be utilized. Safety to workers, nearby residents and to the environment is necessary. Magnum Hunter Resources has had significant difficulty turning wells in-line with one dangerous blowout in Monroe County, Ohio. In some areas of Pennsylvania where the Utica is very deep there have been drilling problems caused by caving in the Silurian salt section. Shell mentioned no problems with the Salina in northeast PA but some problems with the Bloomsburg shale below the Salina and some difficulty drilling through the hard and quartzitic Tuscaroras and Bald Eagle sandstones. This may add to well costs, especially if bit trips are required. All of these difficulties will likely slow down development to some extent until drilling and completion strategies and techniques are thoroughly worked out and best practices are developed.

Geological Constraints

One constraint to assessment is the lack of data availability for porosity mapping due to proprietary logs. Accurate porosity maps could refine reserve estimates and delineation of sweet spots. The most useful mapping at present is IP (initial potential) mapping, or better yet IP per 1000 ft of lateral. IP per frac stage is another possibility. Some isopach maps are available through the Utica Consortium and from state geological surveys. Utilizing production data, porosity, thicknesses, gas content data, log data, and pressure gradients, one can estimate resource-in-place and contour it into sweet spots. Proximity to core areas is often the key to the most economic success in these plays. Such proximity also gives better predictability so that pipeline commitments can be met and hedges made for less economic times. Unfortunately, availability of geological information is a common constraint to ideal accuracy in evaluating oil and gas as proprietary concerns are prevalent. The Utica Consortium data is useful in this respect.

  

Depositional Characteristics of the Utica/Point Pleasant/Logana Intervals

Porosity Development 

Porosity in all of these three zones appears to be entirely due to the catagenesis of organic matter from kerogen to oil and then to gas. Pores are typically very small and very little to no matrix porosity is present. High pressure aids the producibility of the resource with the exception of the oil window in central eastern Ohio which is lower pressure and as of yet has not been economically produced. However, it is clear that porosity development is the best in the so-called shelf areas of the shallow basin. The high porosity development seems to correlate very well with the core areas as investor presentations by Range, Gastar, and others have shown. This at least "suggests" some intergranular porosity by wave, storm, and/or current action, however, thin-section and core studies suggest that it may be entirely due to organic degeneration so that the high TOC areas correspond directly to the high porosity areas. There is abundant evidence of benthic fossils and bioturbation which suggest shallow oxygenated waters with bottom currents. Anoxia may have been seasonal and possibly even in successive zones just below the sea floor. There is probably more core analysis, thin-section, and petrophysical work to be done in the different zones of the overall Utica and comparison of different areas to build a better picture but enough is now known to build good drilling and completion plans.

Shell reports that the Utica-Point Pleasant equivalent play in northeast PA in Tioga County and vicinity is limited to a range 4-7% avg. porosity and very high carbonate content. They note that the high TOC shale is interbedded with the carbonate and so makes up a calcareous shale with high TOC and a high degree of brittleness. 

The Significance of Carbonate Content vs. Clay Content 

These reservoirs all average near 50% carbonate content, with the Point Pleasant and Logana > 50% carbonate. The Utica is higher in clay content and quartz while the Point Pleasant is lower in clay and higher in carbonate. The Logana is up to 75% carbonate. It is thought that the carbonate increases brittleness and allows the rock to frack better. Clay does just the opposite. In other plays where intergranular porosity is a factor the carbonate may be less brittle than the quartz. However, quartz content is very low in the Point Pleasant. The Point Pleasant is very likely the most economic unit with the most recoverable reserves. The WVGES assessment pegs it at 85.1 BCF/square mile in the average sweet spot. Porosity, high TOC, high carbonate, low clay, and high pressure are likely the main factors. The high carbonate content zones imply deposition in a shallow water basin, beginning with the initial sea level transgression in the late Trenton/Lexington.  

Zone Targeting

Most of the better wells have been targeted in the high TOC/high carbonate zones of the Point Pleasant and that will continue to be the case. A few in Ohio (apparently) have targeted the Logana (if I understood correctly) which is technically part of the upper Trenton/Lexington. The Utica shale above the Point Pleasant can be quite thick but is less prospective as a reservoir, yet it still should contain significant reserves that would be economic to produce at higher commodity prices.The Shell discovery wells slant drilled through different zones in the 200-500 ft Utica section. They have not yet determined whether there are frac barriers in the prospective section but plan to utilize microseismic at some point.